Tensions between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense have risen dramatically since I offered this analysis and warning a few months ago. Yevgeny Prigozhin has publicly criticized the MoD’s conduct of the war with ever-escalating vigor. The MoD responded a few weeks ago with a directive essentially ordering all private military contractors to subordinate themselves to Russian military leadership. This was targeted mostly at Wagner, of course. Prigozhin refused to comply.
Over the course of the last few days, various sources have spread rumors of impending action by the Russian military against Wagner—either an attempt to arrest Prigozhin or else some other operation to assert control. I don’t know where they originated: perhaps Prigozhin himself was behind them.
Now, in a remarkable development, Prigozhin has released a video accusing the Ministry of Defense of striking a Wagner base. Here’s a video of the alleged aftermath. He proceeded to announce what sounds like a serious call to armed resistance or civil war. See a translation here.
The MoD denies any such strike.
I would not expect this to lead to an actual military confrontation yet, but it’s by far the most serious internal rift within the Russian military establishment since the war began. The situation could escalated rapidly; watch it closely. And re-read “The Consequences of Continued War” as explained in this post from just after the invasion. . .
Updates:
3:48 PM: FSB anti-terrorism bureau opens criminal case against Prigozhin on charges of inciting armed rebellion.
4:42 PM: Whatever Prigozhin does, he has one enormous difficulty: access to equipment and ammunition. The MoD controls practically all his military supplies. If he intends to make any kind of serious move, he’ll probably need support within the military.
5:10 PM: BBC Russia reporting roadblocks around Moscow. Multiple credible reports of roadblocks and military vehicles in Rostov. But take it all with a grain of salt, as there are no reports of Wagner movements anywhere.
5:38 PM: Gen. Surovikin, Prigozhin’s erstwhile ally, published a video appeal calling on Wagner not to obey Prigozhin. He implies that Wagner forces have left their usual positions. Again, there’s no visual confirmation of any such movements, but the appeal shows that Moscow is taking things very seriously.
7:11 PM: Prigozhin releases new audio message claiming Wagner has crossed the border at Rostov, welcomed by border guards. No visual confirmation.
8:54 PM: A video has appeared that claims to show a gunfight between Wagner and Russian National Guard troops (or police) near Rostov. It’s the most convincing visual evidence so far.
9:17 PM: More videos coming out of alleged Wagner convoys, helicopters (claims of one downed, I have some doubts), and other unidentified military equipment on the move (that may, however, belong to Wagner).
10:07 PM: Wagner reaches Russian military headquarters in Rostov, a city of over one million people (Russia’s tenth-largest).
10:32 PM: Wagner appears to control Rostov; at least one Russian military helicopter likely downed.